An Argument for Higher Rates

Our reasons for expecting mortgage rates to rise have been well documented: soaring gold prices, rising commodity prices, a weak dollar on the international stage, record federal deficits and a record low federal funds rate. To that, we will add the Federal Reserve's acknowledgement that household spending "appears to be expanding" and economic activity "has continued to pick up."

At this point, we would welcome rising interest rates. Rising interest rates are a byproduct of rising economic activity, and rising economic activity necessitates rising employment. If there is one thing our economy needs more than anything, it is rising employment. Low interest rates, low housing prices and tax credits are all well and good, but their impacts are dwarfed by employment. If you don't have a job, low interest rates, low housing prices and tax credits are meaningless.

What's more, rising interest rates would stimulate activity. Potential borrowers have grown languid over the past few weeks; there is no urgency to get out and buy or even refinance a home because of expectations for a prolonged low-rate environment. Rising rates would change those expectations and prompt many potential borrowers to act.

In the meantime, we still think prompting them to act before rates start rising is not such a bad idea.