Are We There Yet?

...at the bottom of the rate curve that is?

I cannot say for sure as my crystal ball in the shop for software upgrades.

I do think we are very close the end of interest rates in the High 4’s and Low 5’s. For one thing, the FED has announced it will stop buying mortgage backed securities and they are currently buying 80% of the new mortgages written in the US.
Calculated Risk, an insightful web site that tracks the movements of the housing and mortgage markets, has supplied evidence to support the coming rise in rates. Calculated Risk has noted the close relationship between the 30 year conventional mortgage fixed rate and the yield curve on the on the 10 year treasury note. Based on statistical analysis posted on their website, Calculated Risk is expecting to see rates rise to 5.5% based on the current yield of 3.45%

You have to be careful as statistics imply a certitude that does not always exist. It should be noted that the aforementioned model has a determination coefficient ( statistics speak for predictive value) of .97 which is very high. Today’s fixed rate is lower than 5.5; that difference is due to the FED purchasing Mortgage Backed Securities and Pre-payment speed and randomness ( refinance activity)

Look for rates to start moving up in the next couple months.